As you can see above, since the beginning of 2005, there has been a significant difference between the average price of homes in the Lower Mainland’s two main regions, as reported by the FVREB and the REBGV. This difference has averaged approximately 20% over the last 17 years, with the average price of a home in the Fraser Valley costing 80% of a home in Greater Vancouver.
In 2021, the disparity between the average price of a home in the Fraser Valley and the average price of a home in Greater Vancouver started to decrease rapidly and in February 2022, the average price (HPI) of a Fraser Valley home was reported to be $1,316,300; beating the average price reported by the REBGV by just under $3,000. This may not seem like a significant difference but when the average price difference in the preceding decade (Feb 2011 – Feb 2021) was nearly $200,000, this decrease is worth talking about.
Will Fraser Valley Homes Continue to Cost more (or the Same) as Vancouver Homes?
The rapid increase we have seen in the HPI of homes in the Fraser Valley over the last 12-24 months was led by a number of factors including housing shortages and the reported “pandemic exodus”, which saw many families look to more suburban areas where they could purchase more space to accommodate the work/school from home requirement brought about by the pandemic.
How is this rapid growth sustainable for Fraser Valley? It might not be… we are speculating that the Fraser Valley has reached its peak while Greater Vancouver will see an increase in the coming months. This trend will cause the delta to flip back, putting Greater Vancouver home prices back on top.
This is in part based on the trend of businesses requiring employees to return to downtown Vancouver offices, awakening many to what the commute downtown from Langley or Abbotsford is like as pre-pandemic traffic levels return, not to mention the high price of gas. This is driven further as desirable downtown amenities reopen and events restart.
We are very curious to see how this plays out in the short, medium, and long term. Is the Fraser Valley more desirable now due to the volume of new homes in master-planned communities, thus able to sustain these high prices? Or will we see a shift back to more demand for urban, transit-oriented communities? Let us know what you think on social (LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram) or at [email protected].
Sources: This representation is based in whole or in part on data generated by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board and the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver which assume no responsibility for its accuracy.