State of the Market in South Surrey

Below is our State of the Market report on residential development in South Surrey. Included in this report is a highlight of the in-process development applications and sale activity of residential development land in the area. Most importantly, we have included an update on the development status of the various neighbourhood plans.

DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY IN SOUTH SURREY

Grandview continues to be the epicenter of residential development in South Surrey. Rapid development and shrinking supply of readily developable land is shifting developer’s demand to the emerging neighbourhoods in Grandview, like Grandview Area 3.

We have analyzed all of the current development applications in South Surrey and mapped out (in green on the below map) the regions with the highest concentrations of development applications as these areas will experience the most development activity over 2018. The vast majority of new development continues to be in Sunnyside Heights and Orchard Grove. As predicted last year, development is moving from west to east across North Grandview Heights and shifting from multifamily to single family development.

The red and yellow highlighted regions represent high concentrations of recent residential development land sales. We anticipate development will continue in Sunnyside Heights over the short term then shift to Grandview Area 3 as development generally follows closely behind recent transactions. The concentration of sales in Grandview Area 5 may be an exception to that rule as that neighbourhood still requires a neighbourhood plan and a majority of the purchasers have been investors rather than developers.

In 2018, we anticipate an increasing amount of attention to be given to Grandview Area 3 and Redwood Heights as the next two neighbourhoods to be developed.

 

AVERAGE SALE PRICES

The below chart shows the average selling price per acre of residential development land for sales in 2017 as well as year-over-year price increases. Neighbourhoods that are not included had insufficient data, meaning fewer than 5 land transactions, in 2017.

The shocking increase in Grandview Area 5 is primarily due to investors purchasing 1 acre properties for rental, not immediate development. This may not necessarily be market price for larger parcels, greater than an acre.

Note: Some neighbourhoods are already outperforming these averages by a significant margin, as prices continue to rise. Call us for intel on current values.

CURRENT STATE OF EACH NEIGHBOURHOOD

Sunnyside Heights – Grandview Area 2

Sunnyside Heights remains one of the most active neighbourhoods in South surrey in part due to the construction of the Fergus Pump Station. In June, City Council approved a 6 month moratorium on any development applications for densities higher than the current land use designations to provide time for the school board to locate an additional elementary school. The moratorium ended in December.

A land use study was conducted on the portion of the plan around 16th Avenue. The preferred plan was approved by Council in December, applying mild density increases for the study area. A high volume of construction will continue through 2018.

Grandview Area 3

City staff continue to make progress on the neighbourhood plan study and anticipate having a preferred land use plan by Spring 2018. The plan will include a requirement for a new elementary school and the neighbourhood’s total density will be aligned with a population not to exceed what a single school can sustain.

Redwood Heights – Grandview Area 4

Redwood Heights is anticipated to experience an abundance of activity in 2018 as the transportation study and servicing challenge that had development stalled, are nearly ironed out. The transportation study awaits final sign off from the Ministry of Transportation and a large development in North Grandview Heights contingent on the same pump station that services Redwood Heights, is preparing to move forward. We may see minor changes to the land use designations and detention pond locations in 2018, following modifications to the road network.

Orchard Grove – Grandview Area 5a

Orchard Grove will continue to build out over 2018 as the neighbourhood is almost completely developer-owned.

Grandview Area 5

In 2017 there were rumors of the emergence of an Area 5b, north of 24th Avenue, but city staff have put this on hold until after the election, at the very least. The remainder of the neighbourhood still requires a neighbourhood plan which is not expected to be initiated in 2018 as city staff remain focused on Area 3.

North Grandview Heights

A handful of new development applications have come forward, utilizing the new RQ zone (quarter acre lot). We will likely see additional applications in 2018 in the area currently designated Existing 1 Acre & ½ Acre Lots if those properties can be assembled for subdivision. It’s unclear how this increased density will be managed as the existing plan and infrastructure did not account for it.

King George Highway Corridor

2017 was a busy year in the northern portion of the King George Corridor with Isle of Mann, Quadra Homes, Forge Properties and Zenterra all making progress on their developments. City staff have received numerous inquiries for developments with densities higher than the current plan, citing the future frequent transit as rationale for increased densities.

Highway 99 Corridor

The massive multi-family development application for a re-designation of the employment lands was denied by council. City staff’s inference is that residential development is not appropriate in the Hwy 99 Corridor neighbourhood.

Douglas

Douglas continues to build out with construction progress from Dawson & Sawyer, application approval for Zenterra’s townhouse development and progress on a handful of other small projects. The school district has indicated a new school is a priority but the timeline is still unknown.

Semiahmoo Town Centre

There was minimal attention given in 2017 to the pending neighbourhood plan update and as a result, minimal development activity is expected over 2018.

Rosemary Heights Central

A density review was conducted to confirm appropriate future densities for the suburban pocket of the plan along 156 Street. City Staff anticipate future development in this area to primarily consist of ½ acre single family lots moving forward.

Rosemary Heights West & Morgan Heights

These neighbourhoods are substantially built out.

Sources

In creating this report we consult City of Surrey planning and engineering staff, survey multiple land transaction reporting systems (Commercial Edge, MLS) and analyze municipal development data to bring you the most relevant information. If you have any questions or are curious as to the impact of these changes on your property, don’t hesitate to reach out.

E.&O.E: This document has been prepared by Frontline Real Estate Services Ltd. for advertising and general information only. The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Frontline Real Estate Services Ltd. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Frontline Real Estate Services Ltd. excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.

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Mike Harrison

Land & Investment Sales
Residential Development Land

Mike Harrison (Personal Real Estate Corporation) joined Frontline Real Estate Services as a broker with the development land division in 2015. He works with Justin Mitchell focusing exclusively on residential development land in the Fraser Valley and supports the entire development land division on marketing and analysis.

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